Sudan referendum votes reveal landslide support for independ

[frigidmagi]

CSM

In the time I’ve been reading about Sudan’s referendum on Southern secession, I have never seen anyone predict that the South would vote for continued unity with the North. In other words, it is no surprise that now the referendum has ended, polling and provisional results are showing a landslide vote for independence. Still, it is useful to look at the early figures: one thing they reveal is a relatively uniform distribution of support for independence across the South.

Reuters asked for estimated figures from Southern Sudanese officials (see a slightly different version here), and received responses in almost all of the South’s ten states. Estimates topped 80 percent in Unity (also known as Western Upper Nile), 90 percent in Central Equatoria (where Juba is located), and 95 percent in Western Bahr al-Ghazal. The estimated tally (sometimes based on incomplete results) approached 99 percent in Upper Nile, Northern Bahr al-Ghazal, Warrap, Jonglei, Eastern Equatoria, and Lakes. Reuters did not obtain results from Western Equatoria.

VOA reports some official provisional results that are in line with the estimates above: 97.5 percent of voters in Juba opted for independence, and the pro-secession vote exceeded 90 percent in Unity, Lakes, and Western Bahr al-Ghazal.

Looking at the results state by state, I was prepared to note variations, but the differences seem to be minor. Border states seem to be voting for independence at essentially the same rates as the other states. Reuters’ poll put Unity (a border state) slightly lower than others, but the official results have Unity’s total at over 90 percent, and other border states (Western Bahr al-Ghazal, Northern Bahr al-Ghazal, Warrap, and Upper Nile) in the same range. Check out this map of South Sudan for better visualization.

All this says to me that South Sudan will enter into independent nationhood possessing a broad consensus about its political destiny: across the South, almost everyone wants independence. It is possible that the expectation of a pro-secession landslide depressed voter turnout among proponents of unity to some extent, but could this effect have been large enough to substantially affect the figures? My sense is no, and most observers have said the vote was credible, so it does not seem that fraud or intimidation seriously warped the figures either. The Southern Sudanese have a hard road ahead of them, but it appears that almost all of them want to walk it together.

Here we go.

[General Havoc]

What are they gonna call themselves? I've long been a fan of "Equatoria", but then I don't live there.

[frigidmagi]

Least of their problems really. I'm hoping that they can put the oil to good use and fund some educational and inferstructural works. But I'll be happy if they can dodge the oil curse by any degree in truth.

[Derek Thunder]

How about Sudansylvania?

(I have paid shamefully little attention to African politics but I am guessing that separation is probably the best course of action)

[The Minx]

Basically, the south (mostly black and animist/christian) has been victimized by the north (mostly Arab and Muslim) for decades, not only by government policies and troops, but by government sponsored "militias" (read: bandit gangs), who went around raping and pillaging. The government had no legitimacy in the eyes of the southerners, and attempts at peace and proper representation had failed horribly for a long time. No other outcome in this referendum was likely to take place.

All I can say about this is "congratulations, south Sudan" and hope that they'll do better now. The challenges are enormous, but with forethought and ambition (and luck) they can pull through.

[frigidmagi]

Like Minx said the divisions between north and south Sudan are both ethnic and religious. They are also linguistic with most northern Sudanese speaking Arabic and southerners speaking various African languages. Northern Sudan has a history usually associated with Egypt, having been an Egyptian territory at various times, southern Sudan is more associated with the various Ethiopian kingdoms (this might not matter though, as this is all pre-colonization), the Sudan was organized as a single territory by the British and that's the only reason these guys are all in a single nation to begin with. A situation you'll find repeated all across Africa.