OpEd: Could Any GOP Candidate's Jobs Plan Pass Congress?

[Dark Silver]

From Rick Perry to Ron Paul, Republicans presidential hopefuls would have a tough time enacting all the proposals they're promoting


Republican candidates have lots of ideas about how to fix the economy, and they're anxious to tell you about them. Policy speeches are coming faster and faster. Mitt Romney is selling a 59-point economic plan on Kindle, and Rick Perry has now unveiled an optional 20-percent flat tax.

Unfortunately, we're trapped in the fantasy round of the election cycle: The GOP presidential primary is beginning to simmer with attacks, but until Republicans select a nominee to run against President Obama, the candidates' main task is to present their economic policies without much concern for practical implementation. Few Republicans are eager to play the buzzkill and question, for instance, the likelihood of a flat tax passing the Senate.

For now, the conversation exists in a space of ideas, not execution. The candidates are signaling where they'd like to take the country, but this may have little to do with where the country would end up, should they actually win.

At some point, if any of these Republicans do become president, they'll have to reckon with Congress. Presidents do not pass laws; they don't even introduce them, technically. For all we'd like to believe a presidential election can change the direction of a country, our nation's laws depend on the agreement of 535 people who can't agree on anything, these days.

So it's worth asking: Has any Republican presidential candidate offered up a jobs plan that stands a chance of becoming law?

The answer will have a lot to do with the makeup of the Senate, where Democrats hold a 51-seat majority. With some vulnerable seats in play, they could lose a handful in 2012. The Cook Political Report rates five Democratic seats as toss-ups and two more as vulnerable, while Republicans will only defend four at-risk seats in 2012. For purposes of this discussion, let's assume that Democrats hold onto at least 43 Senate seats -- a dismal projection for the Blue Team, but enough to block a GOP president's signature legislation, if Democrats hold together. Presumably, an Obama defeat will leave Democrats embittered and unwilling to compromise, eager to offer the Senate GOP a taste of its own obstructionist medicine. And caucus unity may be easier to come by if Democrats lose the seats held by their more conservative, swing-vote colleagues from purple-to-red states.

We can give GOP candidates a small benefit of doubt, since new presidents enter office with a mandate to enact what they campaigned on. If more than 50 percent of Americans vote for a flat-tax candidate, for instance, there is some chance congressional Democrats will approve a flat tax in spite of themselves -- but not a big one. It would all depend on which Democrats remained in office.

Capitol Hill vagaries aside, here's a look at the Achilles' heels of the 2012 GOP economic platforms:



MITT ROMNEY
Can it pass? Probably not.

The Plan: Romney has proposed the most detailed plan of any GOP presidential candidate, an 87-page document that includes mainstream GOP policies like lowering the corporate tax rate, tort reform, cuts in discretionary spending, and ending government regulation of greenhouse gases, plus no capital-gains taxes for the middle class.

Why It Probably Won't Pass: Romney's plan includes repealing President Obama's health-care law, and Senate Democrats are extremely unlikely to approve. The plan promises an executive order granting waivers to states, but Romney has said he would also ask Congress to repeal the law. Romney's plan also calls for repealing the Dodd-Frank financial reform bill, which Senate Democrats would likely oppose

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RICK PERRY
Can it pass? Probably not.

The Plan: Perry has released an economic plan in two parts. On Oct. 14, he unveiled a 41-page energy/jobs plan that includes opening up new oil drilling off U.S. coasts and in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR). Then, on Oct. 25, he released a plan for taxes and spending, the main feature of which is a 20-percent flat tax that taxpayers can choose instead of their current rates. Perry would also cap federal spending at 18 percent of GDP and allow younger citizens to opt for personal retirement accounts instead of Social Security.

Why It Probably Won't Pass: More drilling? If Democrats lose enough seats, it could happen. But Perry wants "to work with Congress to dismantle the Environmental Protection Agency in its current state, rebuilding it into a new agency that focuses on regional and cross-state regulations." That could be difficult, given statutory mandates for some EPA activities. The legislative process could get messy. More significantly, Democrats would likely oppose a flat tax uniformly, as it entails a relative hike on lower incomes and a relative break for higher incomes. And Perry's Social Security measures would be widely opposed; President Bush failed to privatize the program in 2005 even with a Republican House and Senate.

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MICHELE BACHMANN
Can it pass? Probably not.

The Plan: Bachmann doesn't have dozens of pages, just 11 points: 1) a tax holiday for bringing corporate profits back from overseas, 2) less spending and less government, 3) repeal "Obamacare," 4) cut taxes, 5) repeal the Dodd-Frank financial reform bill, 6) open more federal lands for drilling, logging, and mining, 7) roll back regulations, 8) free-trade deals, 9) cut taxes for manufacturers, 10) improve education/innovation, and 11) enforce immigration laws. There are more specifics, but not an overwhelming amount of them.

Why It Probably Won't Pass: Bachmann's plan faces the same problem as Romney's: Republicans won't get 60 Senate votes to repeal health-care reform. Two Democrats voted against the Dodd-Frank bill, so that remains a very slim possibility.

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RICK SANTORUM
Can it pass? No.

The Plan: Like Romney's plan, Santorum's is a smattering of mainstream GOP proposals. It includes a repatriation tax holiday for overseas profits, halving the corporate tax rate, opening off-shore and ANWR drilling, and a zero-percent tax rate for manufacturers.

Why It Won't Pass: Santorum has said he's the only GOP candidate with a plan that could pass Congress tomorrow. After a good election for Republicans in November 2012, much of it could. Santorum wants to repeal the Dodd-Frank financial bill and might get two Democratic votes for that, but his plan also includes a balanced-budget amendment to the Constitution. That requires support from two-thirds of both houses of Congress and three-quarters of U.S. state legislatures -- a hefty feat. A BBA failed by one Senate vote in 1995, and Republicans failed to pass one this year during the debt-limit debate.

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HERMAN CAIN
Can it pass? No.

The Plan: Cain has offered the simplest economic plan of all: the now-famous "9-9-9" plan. It entails a nine percent corporate flat tax, a nine-percent flat income tax, and a nine-percent national sales tax. The corporate and income taxes would signify major tax breaks; the sales tax would be entirely new.

Why It Won't Pass: Democrats oppose a true flat tax, which they deem "regressive," in that it would give a greater break to higher incomes and potentially raise the burden on the lowest incomes. But Cain has another problem: Grover Norquist, the president of Americans for Tax Reform and the keeper of the GOP's be-all, end-all Tax Pledge, opposes it. Cain might be able to talk Norquist and other Republicans into levying a new sales tax given the substantial breaks elsewhere, but right now many Republicans would likely vote against it on Norquist's recommendation.

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NEWT GINGRICH
Can it pass? Probably not.

The Plan: Gingrich goes a little further than some of his fellow candidates, proposing a zero-percent capital-gains tax and repealing not only the Democratic health-care and financial-reform bills, but also the Community Reinvestment Act. He also wants to break up Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Why It Probably Won't Pass: Once again, repealing the financial-reform bill is possible given that two Democrats voted against it, but repealing health-care reform will be nearly impossible if Democrats retain at least 40 Senate seats. While many lawmakers have recognized problems with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, Democrats would likely fight to the bitter end against the dissolution of lending administered by government-sponsored enterprises.

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GARY JOHNSON
Can it pass? No.

The Plan: Johnson would seek to eliminate corporate income taxes entirely. Like some other candidates, he would eliminate government support for Fannie Mae and "reduce or eliminate" federal involvement in education.

Why It Won't Pass: There's one big reason: Johnson's plan includes the legalization and taxation of marijuana. It's one of 12 bullet points in his economic platform. While marijuana legalization has gotten more popular with the public at large in recent years, Congress isn't poised to undo federal drug laws and institute a national pot tax in the next four years.

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RON PAUL
Can it pass? No.

The Plan: Paul has offered up the most aggressive economic plan of any GOP presidential candidate. He would lower the corporate tax rate to 15 percent, cut nearly $1 trillion in his first year as president, convert Medicare and Medicaid to block-grant programs for states, reduce the federal workforce by 10 percent, allow younger citizens to opt out of Social Security, and eliminate the federal departments of Energy, Housing and Urban Development, Commerce, Interior, and Education.

Why It Won't Pass: Leaving aside Congress's unwillingness to make drastic changes to entitlement programs, and leaving aside the difficulties of passing significant budget cuts, Paul might actually be able to end those departments without the approval of Congress, since he's pledged to preserve some of their more vital functions in other areas of the government. But there's one part of Paul's plan Congress will certainly oppose: The elimination of all foreign aid, including aid to Israel. In Congress, support for Israel is so deep seated that Democrats and Republicans would both fight to uphold that segment of foreign aid.

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JON HUNTSMAN
Can it pass? Probably not.

The Plan: Huntsman is considered more moderate than most of his rivals, but his economic plan shares some of their more popular bullet points, including a repatriation tax holiday for overseas profits, a zero-percent capital gains tax, and privatizing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Why It Probably Won't Pass: Huntsman's plan also includes rolling back President Obama's health-care law and the Dodd-Frank financial-reform bill. Once again, Senate Democrats almost certainly won't go for that.

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