So the world is about to end

[Cynical Cat]

I know nuclear is a viable option. I specifically mentioned it. Building a plant does take years each and we need lots of them (really big and tough structures don't get built over night) to take over for other sources of power generation. There's also a limited number of people who have the skills to build the reactor part and run them since it hasn't been much in the way of reactors being built since the 70s. You can't just turn the US nuclear overnight. You need at least a decade of lead time. So, as I said, long range and intelligent planning.

[Rogue 9]

Well then, to quote Napoleon, we must start at once. If it takes a long time, and I know it does, then better to start now than after we can suddenly no longer afford to run the oil-fired plants.

[The Duchess of Zeon]

Well then, to quote Napoleon, we must start at once. If it takes a long time, and I know it does, then better to start now than after we can suddenly no longer afford to run the oil-fired plants.

Oil-fired plants are an irrelevancy. We could turn them all off today for good and nobody would notice a thing--the percentage of oil-fired electrical plants is less than the reserve percentage built into the system.

The problem is in transportation. Cars are going to cease to exist as a mode of transportation in a few decades, if not sooner. Everyone will ride the bus or the train again. We need to electrify and massively expand (more precisely, rebuild) the railroad net, especially the old interurban lines, to mitigate what will otherwise be the total collapse of the suburbs with massive social consequences.

This is not happening, however, so expect massive social consequences.

but the worst case scenario for the 21st century in the USA isn't the total collapse of society. It's more like the level of suffering that was inflicted on Russia in the period of 1914 - 1923, by all causes cumulative, of course: war, civil war, communist oppression, and mass famine, and of course plagues. Government and society went on, but for many the suffering was utterly terrible, and millions and millions died.

[Destructionator XV]

The big problem I (honestly) have with it is increased transportation costs will drive up food costs. I already walk everywhere myself, so the fuel prices don't directly concern me, but those costs also influence the trucks that carry my precious milk from the farms to the stores.

The effects of this are already visible. Milk prices are pretty steadily going up, and local dairy farmers recently had to be bailed out by the state, saying their operating costs were too high for a profit, citing high gas prices as one of the main reasons. They expect this summer to be bad again.

[Mayabird]

On food: meat prices will be the first to go up. It's already happening. All that corn going to ethanol right now means less to dump in feed lots. They take up a lot of space and are very energy intensive. Say goodbye to meat at every meal.

When there will be meat, it'll be much less beef and more chicken. Industrial chicken raising is one of the more efficient manners of converting grain to meat. It sucks to be the chickens, but there it is.

[LadyTevar]

For the country boy, there's always the old-fashioned way to get meat on the table: Huntin'.

Deer, squirrel, rabbit, turkey, grouse, pigeon, groundhog, bear, even snake can put meat on the table, if only for a night. If you have enough land, a small veggie patch can help out as well.

[The Cleric]

On food: meat prices will be the first to go up. It's already happening. All that corn going to ethanol right now means less to dump in feed lots. They take up a lot of space and are very energy intensive. Say goodbye to meat at every meal.

When there will be meat, it'll be much less beef and more chicken. Industrial chicken raising is one of the more efficient manners of converting grain to meat. It sucks to be the chickens, but there it is.

. What are we talking about, a 400-500% increase in meat prices? Or are we talking 10-30%? If it's the former, yeah, it'll get scarcer. If it's the later, then, well, if you don't have the budget to afford an extra $20-$30 on your grocery bill, then you need to take a long hard look at your job and economic situation.

[Mayabird]

Don't you roll your eyes at me. I do mean an eventual 400-500 percent increase or more. Everything in this entire thread we've been saying is a long term projection for the next few decades, and as rainfall decreases in major agricultural areas, aquifers get drained, it's harder to transport basic staples such as grain from lack of fuel (and possibly much of the staples are being burned for fuel), IT WILL HAPPEN. Even if we're prepared meat will be getting much more expensive even beyond basic inflation.

I like to point out things that other people aren't because I see no point in repeating the same things everybody else says, and if you have a problem with that, I'll laugh at you when you're starving in forty years. Fair enough?

[Comrade Tortoise]

On food: meat prices will be the first to go up. It's already happening. All that corn going to ethanol right now means less to dump in feed lots. They take up a lot of space and are very energy intensive. Say goodbye to meat at every meal.

When there will be meat, it'll be much less beef and more chicken. Industrial chicken raising is one of the more efficient manners of converting grain to meat. It sucks to be the chickens, but there it is.

. What are we talking about, a 400-500% increase in meat prices? Or are we talking 10-30%? If it's the former, yeah, it'll get scarcer. If it's the later, then, well, if you don't have the budget to afford an extra $20-$30 on your grocery bill, then you need to take a long hard look at your job and economic situation.

As maya has said, the price of meat will go up more than you may expect with just the oil situation.

Aquifers are not being replenished. They are being tapped dry, not only by farmers, but land developers. It is getting so bad NOW that aquifers are drying up and forming sinkholes. At our current level of use, we will NOT be able to sustain our water supply for another 50 years or so. This will increase the price of grain (as water has to be transported longer distances or desalinated) Which increases the price of meat. COmpound this with a lack of petroleum, at current levels of use, and the transportation costs go up even further, so do the costs of petroleum based fertilizers. In order to reduce transportation costs, a lot of grain will be used to make ethanol, which will further increase the price. Additionally all of these same issues will increase the price of basic food staples like corn, wheat, and other cereal grains. Rice, which takes a crapload of water will not be able to be grown here, same with cotton(why the farm that in AZ, I have no fucking clue)

This does not even go into the effects of climate change on our breadbaskets.

[Ra]

I suppose desalination could mitigate some of the water issues, but *again* that's more expensive to do. Though it is a limitless resource; the oceans are going to be only getting bigger thanks to climate change. Might as well try to pump them dry too.

[The Cleric]

And, of course, market pressures could not ever cause a backlash and prompt anyone to ever change the methods currently used . It seriously pisses me off when current short-term trends are projected ad infinitum without ever stepping back to think "so I wonder what will happen when actual population groups are introduced." Ah, the joys and dangers of statistics.

[Destructionator XV]

It seriously pisses me off when current short-term trends are projected ad infinitum without ever stepping back to think "so I wonder what will happen when actual population groups are introduced.".

It seriously pisses me off when people just magically wave their hands and say the market cures all! What actual mechanisms do you propose, other than this invisible hand working its miracles?

[SirNitram]

Ah, Free Market Wanking. Because it prevented every other major recession and resource shortfall.

If there is an intervention that will stop this, it will not be from market forces. It will come from great minds thinking ahead and not relying on the Invisible Hand which never does what it's supposed to.

Or has no one noticed that the market is being influenced by outside factors, like massive subsidies to the oil companies? Not exactly encouraging them to do crap, really.

[Comrade Tortoise]

And, of course, market pressures could not ever cause a backlash and prompt anyone to ever change the methods currently used . It seriously pisses me off when current short-term trends are projected ad infinitum without ever stepping back to think "so I wonder what will happen when actual population groups are introduced." Ah, the joys and dangers of statistics.

Except that it is not happening. Market forces cannot fix this problem. Why? because our water use is systemic. It is a fixed cost for food production. Unless we go all-gene-modified, which wont happen because it takes 10 years of testing to make sure the crop is safe for commercial production. An a few years of development on top of that. petroleum is the same way.

With goods like oil and water, the normal laws of economics that one uses to analyze consumption and pricing of goods do not apply the same way. This is because these goods are not commodities. They are necessities. Integral to the entire economy. Any price that is demanded MUST be paid, or the economy suffers massively as a whole, worse than the price increase fucks things up.

The rate of technology increase for drought resistant crops is slower than the rate of water use. This is not helped by the Organic Food morons. Let alone the rate at which municipalities consume water. Market forces do not apply there, because the H2O is critical. consumption cannot be significantly reduced past a certain point.

We show no sign of significantly reducing our use of petroleum, at least not for a few decades. We have the technology, but I would wager we lack the political will. It will be a slow transition to reducing the use of petroleum for energy. And chances are, we will not succeed in this transition before prices get horrendous. Why? We lack the political and economic will. Things will have to get bad before we will have this will as a society.