So the world is about to end

[Destructionator XV]

I wish humans weren't so stupid, then we might have done something to prevent the fall of our civilization.

But we are so stupid, and we are now going to get exactly what we deserve.

All of you worrying about having a successful life - forget about it. If the end of energy doesn't get you, the raising temperatures will. Or if you are really lucky, maybe you'll get nuked when we start to fight to the death over what's left.

Technologically advanced civilization was nice while it lasted. I'll miss it when its gone; I just wish it didn't have to happen now.

[Hotfoot]

What the hell?

[Destructionator XV]

The world is going to end. Not literally, but civilization as we know it will fall, due to our over dependence on fossil fuels, which are running out. It is the double threat: greenhouse gases from burning them fucks the environment, and running out of them fucks the economy.

Look at the bright side, though: at least it hasn't completed yet; it gives me a chance to buy the Gilmore Girls box set DVDs before shipping becomes prohibitively expensive. Or at the very least, youtube some Gilmore Girls before the internet is shut down, which will happen with the fall of man.

[frigidmagi]

Hey Genius you can run a car off Alcohol. Hell you can buy a kit off the internet to convert your standard engine to it.


I think your Gilmore Girls are safe.

[Hotfoot]

Oil isn't runnign out, cheap oil is. We're already paying prices for cheap oil that would give the oil companies profits for the expensive oil. The amount of oil on the planet is massive.

Climate change won't make a huge difference for at least a hundred years. We have time to work on it. Obviously now is better, but it's not going to end the world tomorrow.

Right now we stand a larger chance of being wiped out because of diseases.

Don't worry about the heat, the colds will kill you first.

[Destructionator XV]

Hey Genius you can run a car off Alcohol.

Can you run fleets of trucks off alcohol? How about airplanes? Or trains? Or ships? Can it be used in fertilizer?

Fuck, is there even enough alcohol to take the place of gas?

Oil isn't runnign out, cheap oil is.

Which can still wreak havoc on the economy, thus ending the world with secondary effects.

Climate change won't make a huge difference for at least a hundred years. We have time to work on it.

As the temperature goes up, people will want to air condition more (or suffer increased mortality due to heat stroke (which is actually what the IPCC thinks will happen, no exaggeration there)), which uses more energy, which makes the temperature go up more. Before you know it, Venus, all over again. It's a vicious cycle.

[The Village Idiot]

Hey Genius you can run a car off Alcohol.

Can you run fleets of trucks off alcohol? How about airplanes? Or trains? Or ships? Can it be used in fertilizer?

Fuck, is there even enough alcohol to take the place of gas?

If you can run one truck, why not a whole bunch.... as for planes, a gas turbine engine will run almost any fuel (granted the poorer the fuel the less effecient). Now on to Trains, a fair amount are electric, others use gas turbine engines or even diesel (biodiesel, alcohol). And lastly, most military ships are going nuclear, public ships are gas turbine and diesel, which as we have covered have no problem running on fuels other then oil.

Oil isn't runnign out, cheap oil is.

Which can still wreak havoc on the economy, thus ending the world with secondary effects.

The economy is stronger then you think. But any economy who cannot adapt will be over taken by a stronger one, its happened all through history.

Climate change won't make a huge difference for at least a hundred years. We have time to work on it.

As the temperature goes up, people will want to air condition more (or suffer increased mortality due to heat stroke (which is actually what the IPCC thinks will happen, no exaggeration there)), which uses more energy, which makes the temperature go up more. Before you know it, Venus, all over again. It's a vicious cycle.

Wow, that is one hell of a leap.... but I digress. Not all air conditioning effects global warming, and in most cases has a near negilgable impact on the environment. I CAN NOT fathom how long it would take for your venus theory to be noticed.

[Something Awesome]

Climate change won't make a huge difference for at least a hundred years. We have time to work on it.

As the temperature goes up, people will want to air condition more (or suffer increased mortality due to heat stroke (which is actually what the IPCC thinks will happen, no exaggeration there)), which uses more energy, which makes the temperature go up more. Before you know it, Venus, all over again. It's a vicious cycle.

Wow, that is one hell of a leap.... but I digress. Not all air conditioning effects global warming, and in most cases has a near negilgable impact on the environment. I CAN NOT fathom how long it would take for your venus theory to be noticed.

I think Adam's thinking on a longer time-scale than most, as "before you know it" probably means within a few centuries, maybe millennia. It's a matter of perspective.

Even so, he has a point with the air conditioning; it's an interesting intersection of our modern problems of energy and global warming. Increased temperatures will result in increased energy usage to maintain comfort(/survival, eventually). I don't see how that's a very large leap at all. Some energy is still being generated by means that increase greenhouse gases and therefore affect global warming, so it seems logical to me to conclude that air conditioners, and in fact any energy use, will have an impact on the environment. Until we stop using fossil fuels entirely, that will remain true.

I don't have anything resembling a strong background in economics, so I have no idea what will happen as the oil supply continues to decrease. I would think though that the obvious solution is to more fully switch to other sources of energy. That'd be the safe option I think.

Adam, instead of being all defeatist and fatalistic, why not make your vast intellect useful and fix things? Stop slacking off in school and take part in some research. Try contributing to society instead of just criticizing it.

[SirNitram]

Hey Genius you can run a car off Alcohol.

Can you run fleets of trucks off alcohol? How about airplanes? Or trains? Or ships? Can it be used in fertilizer?

Fuck, is there even enough alcohol to take the place of gas?

Trucks can be run off of electricity or bio-diesel, the latter already can be used without modification to the truck. Airplanes are now testing Butanol, Ethanol's bigger, surlier brother. Trains can and have run off an electric-diesel hybrid for decades; electrify more rails and you can migrate entirely off diesel. Ships can run off diesel, steam, or fission. Or electric again.

The Chinese Proverb 'May You Live In Interesting Times' will come true, but civilization will not collapse. At worst, the craziest of the Earth Liberation Front and those Christians who have reached the point of praying to a graven image of President George W. Bush will launch into orgies of terrorism.

[Ra]

While I doubt I'll be able to drive twenty miles to work anymore and still break even, I don't think civilization will necessarily end from peak/no oil. Suburbia won't be sustainable, but we survived before Suburbia and shall do so afterward.

And if worse comes to worse, hell we can start using steam trains to move people about once again. They worked excellent in the Victorian and (here in the US) Frontier times. While nobody has built them since ca. 1950, I'm rather positive someone will consider a return to steam should they become more economical than even d/e locomotives. (I admit, part of me wishes to see steam trains return, though as SirNitram noted all-electric lines can certainly be done)

Will climate change fuck us up? Yes. Will it do so before we are forced to have alternatives to a huge oil-driven economy? Uncertain, but I dare say that it probably won't.

Mostly chiming in on what others have said, people who read doom-and-gloom articles about the Peak Oil Menaceâ„¢ forget that we have hundreds of years of pre-petroleum civilization to fall back upon. Ships can go back to steam, or even wind power. Sails will make cargo shipment slower than they are with huge turbines, and the Gavy (:razz:) might not like having to hoist sails on a DDX, but we won't see a long-term global shipping freeze.

One last thought, though butanol is being looked at, I still expect air travel will likely become as it was before the jet age, restricted mostly to the upper classes. I'm no expert on any of this, however.

[Destructionator XV]

Scale, people, scale.

Before the industrial revolution, the world population peaked at about one billion. We are now closer to 6.5 billion. Reverting to a civilization pre-modern industry means 5.5 billion die, all other things being equal.

[SirNitram]

Scale, people, scale.

Before the industrial revolution, the world population peaked at about one billion. We are now closer to 6.5 billion. Reverting to a civilization pre-modern industry means 5.5 billion die, all other things being equal.

Why would we revert to pre-Revolution technology? Stupid, stupid. Oil makes up a miniscule part of the power grid. Personal transport will become out of reach for a little while, that doesn't mean we pop back to the 1800s. Use your brain.

[Cynical Cat]

Our modern agricultural practices are very oil dependent (fuel for machines and fertilizer) and the end of cheap oil is worrisome with regards to the food supply. However, measures are already in the works to deal with that. We're not doomed, however we do have two big problems that our societies will have to plan for and deal with.

[frigidmagi]

I'd like to add a note on the food bit. The vast majorityof farmers in my home state have converted their tractors and other farm machines to run on other fuels. Natural Gas, Ethanol and Corn Alcohol are the most popular. This has mostly to do with cost and other factors. As to fertilers alternatives are being made available.

This is not even covering what the Genetics guys are working on. I'm talking wheat that can grow in drier, hoter clims and provide you with more vitamens, while boasting your immune system.

Again, civilization will not fall from the decrease of available oil or global warming.

[Cynical Cat]

Again, civilization will not fall from the decrease of available oil or global warming.

Perhaps it would be better to say that "civilization need not fail from the decrease of available oil or global warming."

[frigidmagi]

No... I'm confident enough to say will not.

[Mayabird]

This topic might be better off moved to S&L or another place at least.

The people who will get kicked the worst by global warming/peak oil are going to be the poor. Agriculture starts to get bad, and food prices will go up. The people with the least money for food and fuel will have the hardest time. It'll be poor countries at first (like most of Africa) and then move along to the poor in richer countries. Joe Redneck can kiss his big-screen TV and huge-ass pickup truck goodbye.

We've still got plenty of time now to prepare and try to prevent the worst from happening. Prepare, because a 0.6 C rise is pretty much inevitable. Prevention, because End Permian Take II could cause the extinction of the entire human race. Not all life. Earth would be fine. Birds would probably come out pretty well, actually, since they can fly and have far more efficient lungs. I'd rather not be a cautionary tale to the sentient species of bird that comes along a hundred million years later.

[Destructionator XV]

This topic might be better off moved to S&L or another place at least.

Yeah, I put it in testing originally since I was exaggerating, and not really serious about debating it, but this has evolved into more than that, so I'll move it (and make some real responses tomorrow when I have more time to think).

[Comrade Tortoise]

Can you run fleets of trucks off alcohol? How about airplanes? Or trains? Or ships? Can it be used in fertilizer?

Fuck, is there even enough alcohol to take the place of gas?

Trucks, yes, trains, they can be made electric, ships, and fertilizer can be made from many, many things.

We can make shitloads of alcohol, additionally, we have the technology to run most things with a motor using electricity generated from either nuclear, wind, or solar energy. As our oil supply is depleted and it becomes more expensive, we will be economically forced to change the way we operate. And it will happen pretty seamlessly

Which can still wreak havoc on the economy, thus ending the world with secondary effects.

Oh stop your scaremongering. At worst, we may go through a recession.

As the temperature goes up, people will want to air condition more (or suffer increased mortality due to heat stroke (which is actually what the IPCC thinks will happen, no exaggeration there)), which uses more energy, which makes the temperature go up more. Before you know it, Venus, all over again. It's a vicious cycle.

Do I have to call the Hysteria police? Two Words. Swamp Cooler

Scale, people, scale.

Before the industrial revolution, the world population peaked at about one billion. We are now closer to 6.5 billion. Reverting to a civilization pre-modern industry means 5.5 billion die, all other things being equal.
_________________

Except that all other things are not equal. We have the technology to wean ourselves off of oil use (for energy, not necessarily materials) pretty much completely. Civilization is not going to collapse.

No... I'm confident enough to say will not.

Same here.

[Cynical Cat]

We can make shitloads of alcohol, additionally, we have the technology to run most things with a motor using electricity generated from either nuclear, wind, or solar energy. As our oil supply is depleted and it becomes more expensive, we will be economically forced to change the way we operate. And it will happen pretty seamlessly

Doubt it. Wind and solar are very limited options and nuke plants are hard to build and have to be planned years in advance and expertise is scare. Coal, unfortunately, is likely to take up some of the oil slack and its environment problems are well known. This requires serious advance planning. I'm not going to panic over it, but hand waving it away isn't going to work either.

Which can still wreak havoc on the economy, thus ending the world with secondary effects.

Oh stop your scaremongering. At worst, we may go through a recession.

It could be a lot worse than that. Don't understate the problem, that's just as bad.

As the temperature goes up, people will want to air condition more (or suffer increased mortality due to heat stroke (which is actually what the IPCC thinks will happen, no exaggeration there)), which uses more energy, which makes the temperature go up more. Before you know it, Venus, all over again. It's a vicious cycle.

Except that all other things are not equal. We have the technology to wean ourselves off of oil use (for energy, not necessarily materials) pretty much completely. Civilization is not going to collapse.

No... I'm confident enough to say will not.

Same here.

World civilization doesn't have to collapse for very shitty things to happen in your own personal country. We have time. Lots of people in the developed world are beginning to realize that this can come and bite them in the ass in a bad way. The political will to do something about it isn't there yet in America, but it is growing. These aren't knew problems, they've just become undeniable. The early warning has been pissed away, but we still have time to make plans for a transition and act on them. Getting North Americans to vote for a less disspossable and car intensive lifestyle is going to be real trick.

[The Cleric]

CC, nuclear is an incredibly viable option. The only reason it takes so long to build plants is because of all the Greenpeace bullshit that slows them down. And expertise can be spread around; doesn't take a lot of skill to pour concrete ya know .

[Mayabird]

Not just Greenpeace but terrorism fears. OMG the TERRISTS gonna blow up a plant and destroy the world bullshit.

Georgia Tech used to have a research reactor that powered the campus but it got shut down and destroyed utterly because of the Olympics and bombing fears back then. Nobody outside of campus really knew the thing existed. It's like the pipe with fire coming out of it. Everybody here knows about it, but it took the media a few decades to pick up on it, and then they went into a tizzy about a "devastating fire." I don't even think they posted retractions, either. But I digress.

[frigidmagi]

Thing is when they build a nuclear reactor they use mountains as a model. I'm talking tons after tons of concrete, rock, lead and steel. Roadblocks, fences, etc.

A recent indepentent study proved that you could crash a 747 into the average nuclear plant and still not cause a meltdown or release any radioactive materal. The plants are that fucking built.

[Mayabird]

I know Magi, but facts never stopped these people from being hysterical, and by virtue of them being loud and fanatical, they get heard. *sigh*

It doesn't matter how stupid it is. Greenpeace is against fusion power because it's *gasp* nuclear! It doesn't matter that it's quite different from fission. I can kinda understand why the serious "protect the whales" people decided to split off and do their own thing.

[Destructionator XV]

Greenpeace are also the assholes who spread the terrorism lies; there is a commercial of theirs on youtube showing a family on a beach next to a nuclear reactor and a plane suddenly crashes into it. I hate them for many reasons, and this is one of the biggest.

If we had the political will, nuclear power could power the world for millions of years, but it seems we don't. I am somewhat optimistic that will change in the near future, though, but probably not before we make many more mistakes in that area.