The following is my absolute last word on this matter:
frigidmagi wrote:
Yes, you bloody do. You are ignoring that shit like that had happened before without causing such a reaction.
Shit like this, like the Russian Revolution, has NEVER happened before. Never. I will repeat this because you do not seem to understand it. NEVER before has
anything like the Russian Revolution happened in Europe. Not in the French Revolution. Not in the Paris Commune. Not in the revolutions of 1848, not in
any event in the history of Europe at all. Not since the
Thirty Years' War has Europe seen devastation on the scale of what happened in Russia in that civil war. The above statements are all
absolute facts.
If they don't do this when it happens in France Right Fucking Next Door, why should they panic over a failed rebellion in Russia?!?
They
DID do it in France when the French Revolution broke out. Or have you never heard of the War of the First Alliance? The Battle of Valmy? The Levee en Masse? The Wars of the Directorate?
The entirety of Europe invaded France during the Revolution to suppress this exact sort of shit even BEFORE they had executed their king.
Or were you talking about the Paris Commune? How you can claim that a 5-month experiment in so-called Communism that was crushed by the Prussian Army is the same thing as a five-year civil war that killed nearly ten million people over a territory the size of Western Europe in which the entire aristocracy of Russia died is entirely beyond me. I repeat my above statement. The Russian Revolution was an event
without equal in the History of Europe to that date. It scared the conservative factions of Europe PLENTY more than any of the minor brushfires you've pointed out. Claiming that the landed classes of Germany would react to the Paris Commune in the same way as the Russian Revolution is like claiming that the US of today would react to a strongly worded letter from the UN in the same way that we would to a thermo-nuclear bombardment of the Eastern Seaboard. It is
utterly ludicrous.
The Base Fact has you put is that the Soviet Union by it's sheer existence and past actions provided more then an enough of the threat to turn the local communists from annoyence to threat of the century to them. When Mussolini took power the Soviet Union had just been beaten off by Poland, an invasion it mounted in the middle of as you put it "Europe's bloodiest civil war" if they're crazy enough to do that, what will they do when they have power and no domestic enemies of any strength? You and I in year 2008 A.D know the answer is nothing. In 1922 A.D? That answer looks much less sure now doesn't it?
The Soviet Union definitely scared people, I'm not claiming it didn't. I'm claiming that the conservatives of Italy and Germany had AMPLE reason to be scared even without the Soviet Union. Even in 1922, it was known that the Red Army was not about to invade Italy (it was not physically capable of doing so), and yet they turned to Mussolini to fend off their domestic communists all the same. The Red Army had no money or weapons or diplomatic support to give to the Italian Communists in 1922, as they were in the middle of their damned civil war, and yet Mussolini STILL got into power on the mere threat of domestic anti-communism.
Let's look at the state of the communist movement in your world at the point Hitler would be making his moves for power. Most of it's big leaders? Dead or in a Russian jail. Most of it's activists? Same. Most of it's money? Disappeared.
You're thinking of the Communists as some kind of world-wide movement when they were much more like a series of loosely connected cells. The German Communist Party in the early 30s (the period you're talking about) drew neither leaders nor activists nor significant monies from the Russian communist party.
Go back and read up on it yourself if you don't believe me. The Kommunistische Partei Deutschlands (KPD) was the most powerful Communist Party outside of the USSR. They were considered sufficiently scary by the right wing authorities that the Freikorps were created just to oppose them as far back as 1919! That's before the USSR was even proclaimed! The non-existence of the USSR does not imperil that of the KPD. Flat out. Nor does it prevent them from being as big a perceived threat to the "establishment" as they were perceived as being historically.
In short we would be talking about a movement that just took one hell of a body blow. It's not dead, but it's weaker at this point, Much, MUCH weaker then it is in our timeline. These conservatives are the same ones who didn't panic when Paris exploded in the Paris Commune of 1871. They would have dealt with uprisings during the Polish/Soviet war in 1919 to 1921 and crushed them. In short given the condinations you have created, they are more secure now then they are in ours. There Is No Reason For Them to Ally with the Fascist.
As I stated before, comparing the Paris Commune to the Russian Revolution is like comparing a firecracker to an
atomic bomb. The same conservatives who did not panic when Paris exploded did not do so because Paris was presently surrounded by the entire Prussian army, and was extinguished in a matter of months. The Communards of Paris did not purge the entire propertied class of their city, did not execute by firing squad and starvation an entire social class of a country the size of the entirety of Europe, and did not
utterly destroy their society prior to going down in flames. The Russian Revolution did all of those things.
Let me give you a point of comparison here:
Our history:
1922: Russia is in the middle of its civil war. Italian conservatives, afraid of communist threats in their country, turn to Mussolini to take over as leader of the fascists.
My history:
1922: Russia is in the middle of its civil war. Italian conservatives, afraid of communist threats in their country, turn to Mussolini to take over as leader of the fascists.
I am at a loss to understand how you can claim that the first of those posits is true, while the second one is false. Remember, this is 1922! In 1922, the civil war is still raging in my new timeline! As it was in the real one! So how exactly is it that the conservatives THIS time would NEVER EVER align with the fascists when that's EXACTLY what they did in our timeline?
To bad that's not what I'm saying. I'm saying given the destruction you have wrecked on the Eastern Euro Communist and it's effects, that the communists are not strong enough to create the threat that propels the Conservatives to make the alliances to install the Fascists into power. Without those alliances, the Fascists don't get power. They don't have the support, the guns or the money.
That is completely untrue. I have explained six times already that the lack of a Soviet Union does NOTHING to mitigate the threat that the conservative factions feel. Do you imagine that all the German Communists simply
went away because the Bolsheviks failed to win the war? In OUR history, the Bolsheviks had nothing whatsoever to do with their establishment in the first place, nor did they provide them with support, money, or other things that they would need to scare the pants off of the conservatives. They did that all THEMSELVES. That's in OUR history. Why in the hell should that be any different in THIS history?
Screaming that Hitler and Mussolini have to be power because is ridiculous. There are no inevitabilities in history, if you make changes you must consider all the implications. And one of the implications you have failed to consider is that the communists of Europe simply aren't going to be strong enough in the outline you have provided to scare the Conservatives that much.
The emphesis above is mine. I will repeat the salient point:
THERE ARE NO INEVITABILITIES IN HISTORY.
This is a game of alternate history, where we explore the possibilities of changes in the timeline. What might have been? What could the possibilities have been? What might the consequences have been? Given the above, Frigid, let me ask you this:
If there are no inevitabilities in history, how exactly is it that you are claiming that inevitably, the lack of a Soviet Union would have
absolutely resulted in no Hitler and no Mussolini?
This is alternate history. I apply changes to this timeline, and I work out the consequences. I believe that the elimination of the USSR would not have stopped Mussolini or Hitler from coming to power. I am, in fact, certain of that, but as there are no inevitabilities in History, I will simply say that I believe it to be the most likely outcome. I have just spent PAGES of text arguing to you that the Communists of Germany and Italy would be no weaker in this world than they were in our world. You can agree with that position, or you can disagree with it.
What you
cannot do is turn around and claim I just didn't consider it. If I didn't even consider it, precisely what was all that ink I just spilled above?
I will be accused of being wrong, but not of not giving the matter thought. I think the pages of text I have provided in this matter proves rather conclusively that I have given a GREAT DEAL of thought to the subject. You think I'm wrong? GIVE ME EVIDENCE. I will not change my mind simply because you are shouting the same insistence over and over. You think the communists should have been crippled by the lack of a Soviet Union to the point that the conservatives would never have aligned with Hitler? EXPLAIN YOUR REASONS FOR BELIEVING THIS. The evidence, the data, the figures, the connections. Don't turn around and claim that the burden of proof is on me here. I'm the one running the goddamn game, and I am not changing the premise of said game unless you can convince me it is wrong. You do not convince me of SHIT by screaming "I'M RIGHT I'M RIGHT I'M RIGHT" over and over again. I have spent a great deal of time explaining my position. If you cannot explain yours in terms beyond "because I said so", then your position is not worth further discussion.
Remember, this is alternate history. I don't need certainty here. All I need is there to be a REASONABLE POSSIBILITY that the communists in Germany would have continued to pose a sufficient threat to the German conservatives for them to back Hitler. I believe that possibility is more than reasonable, and am exploring the results. You are claiming that this is bullshit, and therefore that it is ABSOLUTELY BEYOND THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY for the conservatives to have backed Hitler.
Good luck with that one.
You want to debate me, do so via PMs or IMs, as I last requested you do. Otherwise, quit trolling my thread. I've got posts to write.
Gaze upon my works, ye mighty, and despair...
Havoc: "So basically if you side against him, he summons Cthulu."
Hotfoot: "Yes, which is reasonable."